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2015 results inline; unique position to benefit from PPP market

2016-4-1 22:15| 发布者: admin| 查看: 276| 评论: 0

2015 results inline; unique position to benefit from PPP market

  查看PDF原文 公告日期:2016-04-01

  北控水务集团(00371) 2015 results in-line BEWG’s 2015 revenue rose 51.3% YoY to HK$13.5bn andreported net profit increased 36.8% YoY to HK$2.5bn, in linewith our forecast and 7% higher than consensus. The recurringnet profit actually rose 40% to HK$2.3bn. BEWG’s total dailydesign capacity grew 22% YoY, (4.47mn tons) to a total 24.6mnat end- 2015. Trends to watch BEWG maintains guidance to secure 3mn tpd watercapacity in 2016, as it would like to maintain the investmenthurdle of 9% project IRR when there is much fiercer competitionfor new water project in both the biding and M&A market. Expansion into PPP sector. BEWG will transit from a BT(build-transfer) model to a PPP (private-public partnership)model for water environmental renovation projects from 2016and targets incurring ~HK$4bn capex in this field. In contrast toa BT model, the PPP model has a higher requirement for capital,government relationship and technology – areas in which BEWGshould have an edge. In addition, BEWG will leverage on variousfinancing methods to conduct such PPP projects and mainlyprovide EPC and O&M services to boost its earnings withoutincreasing its net gearing ratio. Continuous tariff hike. BEWG completed a tariff hike for 23water plants (~3mn tpd), including regular adjustment of +14%for 19 projects and +41% for 4 plant upgrades. As of end-2015,BEWG still had 57.3% water capacity that followed the standardI-B or below, which could be upgraded and enjoy tariff hikes. Earnings forecast We cut our 2016e EPS 4% to HK$0.34 for the newexchange rate and introduce 2017e EPS at HK$0.40. Valuation and recommendation Reiterate Conviction BUY rating but cut TP to HK$8.82from HK$9.17 (-4%) based on 26x 2016e PER. Risks:Lower new capacity addition; failure in new businessdevelopment.

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